The new coronavirus sweeps the world, threatening the health, order and economic activities of all human beings. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) called the impact of the new crown epidemic on the global economy "the worst economic recession since the Great Depression." Faced with this situation, neither developed nor developing countries seem to be able to escape from the dilemma of economic decline to negative growth.
On the one hand, the pressure to restart the economy, and on the other hand, the end of the containment of the epidemic has not yet been seen. All countries in the world, including the United States, are in a dilemma. Taking the current epidemic center of the United States as an example, although the number of new infections per day is still growing by 20,000-30,000, President Trump still said that "the economy must be restored to momentum" and restrictions will be relaxed in stages.
At the risk of the continued spread of the virus, the blockade must also be lifted. What is the current economic pressure on the US and major global economies? Perhaps from the current first-quarter machine tool orders in various countries, we can get a glimpse of it.
U.S. machine tool orders fell 16.5% month-on-month in February
According to a report issued by the American Manufacturing Technology Association (AMT): In February 2020, US machine tool orders rose by 3% from the previous month to 277.9 million US dollars, but fell by 16.5% from February 2019. The total orders as of February 2020 were US$547 million, 26.2% lower than the total orders at the beginning of 2019.
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2019.2-2020.2 US machine tool orders
"Before the outbreak, we had expected that manufacturing machine tool orders in the first half of this year would decrease and increase in the second half. Unfortunately, the current economic downturn is much more severe than expected. Although we expect the economy to There has been a rebound, but this recovery may take a long time to return to pre-crisis levels." The head of AMT said.
Germany's March machine tool orders fell 22.6% year-on-year
According to a report by the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association (VDW), machine tool orders fell by a total of 22% in 2019, domestic domestic bookings fell by 21%, and export orders fell by 22%. Based on the disappointing demand for machine tools last year and the surprise attack of this year's epidemic, the output of German machine tools will fall by 18% in 2020.
German orders for processing and manufacturing plants in March fell by 15.6% compared with February
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Affected by the new coronavirus epidemic, the number of orders for processing and manufacturing plants in Germany fell by 15.6% in March compared with February, and orders for machine tools and other orders shrank more than in February, reaching 22.6%.
VDW Chairman Heinz-Jürgen Prokop said: "This is different from the previous downturn in the manufacturing industry, I am afraid I can't hope for a rapid recovery."
Japan's March machine tool orders decreased by 40.8% year-on-year
According to the data released by the Japan Work Machinery Industry Association on April 9, the total number of machine tool orders (expressed value) in March decreased by 40.8% year-on-year to 77.3 billion yen, which was lower than the previous year for 18 consecutive months.
Japan's total machine tool orders fell to 77.3 billion yen
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In terms of total orders, domestic orders in Japan decreased by 36.5% to 34.2 billion yen; overseas orders decreased by 43.8% to 43.1 billion yen. At present, orders for China account for about one-quarter of external demand. Under the stimulation of the Chinese government's new infrastructure plan, machine tool orders seem to have a slight upward trend, and the decrease in orders has slightly narrowed from February (47.6%).
In the face of the epidemic situation, even large-scale enterprises can not escape the embarrassment, Shibaura Machinery (formerly Toshiba Machinery) said, "Due to the epidemic situation, the willingness to invest in equipment at home and abroad is still in a downturn, and business travel is restricted and it is difficult to start cooperation negotiations."
China's March PMI index rebounded 16.3%
According to data released by the China Machine Tool Industry Association, the PMI for March returned to above the gloom line, at 52.0%, up 16.3% from the previous month. Among them, the production index was 54.1%, up 26.3 percentage points from the previous month; the new order index was 52.0%, up 22.7 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year decline rate of industrial output value narrowed from 13% in January to February to 1% in March.
Various indications indicate that the overall operation of the machine tool industry is gradually recovering. In March, major economic indicators such as operating income, total profit, output value, output, and order volume rebounded significantly from the previous month, and market demand has gradually recovered. Although the year-on-year trend is still declining sharply, China has already passed the peak period of the epidemic. The orderly resumption of production and production continues to promote the process of economic restart. The manufacturing industry will eventually clear the mist and see the dawn!
It takes time to contain the epidemic. While adapting to a protracted war with the virus, countries must also restructure their economies under the crisis. Whether it is a country that prioritizes the stabilization of an epidemic situation, a post-economies economy, or a country that catches both hands at the same time, only countries or enterprises that have the earliest ability to adapt to the "new normal" can become leaders in the new era.
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