On April 3, the People's Bank of China, the central bank, decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point for rural credit cooperatives, rural commercial banks, rural cooperative banks, rural banks, and urban commercial banks operating only in provincial administrative regions. It was put into place twice on May 15th and May 15th, with a reduction of 0.5 percentage points each time, releasing a total of about 400 billion yuan in long-term funds.
The central bank has implemented two RRR cuts during the year. Among them, on January 6, the central bank reduced the quota by 0.5 percentage points and released 800 billion yuan; on March 16, the central bank implemented a targeted reduction of inclusive finance and released 550 billion yuan of long-term funds.
Dong Ximiao, a special researcher of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that the RRR cut has the effect of "one arrow and three eagles". First, it can release long-term liquidity; second, it can reduce the cost of bank liabilities; again, it can be marketed Send a strong signal of stable expectations.
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With the implementation of the targeted RRR cut, the central bank lowered the interest rate for excess deposit reserves of financial institutions in the central bank, from 0.72% to 0.35%.
Centaline Securities pointed out that the sharp reduction in the interest rate of the super reserve fund is conducive to increasing the enthusiasm of banks to provide credit to entities. In the second half of 2019, the excess deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is higher than that in the same period in recent years. This is a certain gap from the policy expectation that the central bank continuously releases liquidity to banks to support entities in the same period. This may be a substantial reduction in the excess deposit reserve interest rate. The main reason.
No sequel to MLF
In the past month, market interest rates have continued to be significantly lower than policy interest rates, and interest rate cuts are expected to intensify. Obvious policy signals have been released first-on April 17, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee convened a meeting and proposed to "use RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, refinancing and other means to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity." Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, said that the central bank will Supporting the restoration and development of the real economy has been placed in a more prominent position, including measures such as the implementation of targeted reductions.
Xie Yunliang, the chief macro analyst of Minsheng Securities, believes that the Politburo meeting proposed specific monetary policy measures such as RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, and re-loans, which will increase the strength of subsequent policies.
Tao Jin, a senior researcher at Suning Financial Research Institute, pointed out that due to the continued easing of liquidity in the inter-bank market, the DR007 interest rate fell to a historical low, and the frequency of open market operations such as reverse repurchase may be reduced in the future, but the room for targeted RRR cuts and interest rate cuts is still relatively small Large, and the necessity is still greater.
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Just yesterday (14th), the central bank announced that the current total liquidity of the banking system is at a reasonable and sufficient level, so it does not carry out reverse repurchase operations. In view of the expiration of 200 billion yuan of medium-term borrowing facilities (MLFs) on that day, the central bank realized a net return of 200 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that the 14th is an important observation point for the central bank to cut interest rates. The expiration point of 200 billion yuan MLF is just before the 20th LPR quotation, which can guide the subsequent LPR quotation. Previously, the market generally expected the central bank to continue to do MLF, but the central bank chose to "do nothing". This unexpected move was regarded as a "bubble" in rate cuts.
Jiang Hai Securities Qu Qing said that considering that the central bank has recently invested a large amount of base currency through re-loans, and on the 15th, 200 billion lowered funds were in place, the central bank is likely to shrink the continuation of continuation, but whether the MLF interest rate is lowered compared to the amount invested more important. As the improvement of high-frequency data in May has increased, the situation of overseas resumption of work has not been clear, and it is expected that the central bank may not rush to cut interest rates continuously.
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Will it be lowered again in the future? According to the statistics of Northeast Securities, the liquidity gap may exceed 1 trillion in May. From the perspective of the liquidity gap and the issuance of special government bonds, there is still a chance of RRR cuts in the second quarter, but due to the uncertain timing of the issuance of special government bonds, 5, 6 There is a possibility of lowering the standard every month.
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