After several months of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the global auto industry began to diverge. Under the influence of a series of stimulating consumer policies and effective control of the epidemic, the domestic auto industry quickly resumed production and resumed production. Sales in April began to "turn positive" year-on-year and ended. 21 consecutive months of decline; while overseas markets, Japan, Vietnam, Italy, the United Kingdom, Germany and other countries are still in a cold winter. Toyota expects operating profits to fall by 80% in fiscal 2020, and Moody’s also expects global growth in 2020 Auto sales fell by 20%, maintaining a "negative" outlook.
Significant domestic recovery in April
Since this year, most regions of the country have successively introduced policies to stimulate automobile consumption, including increasing car purchase subsidies and increasing license plate supply. At the beginning of the policy's frequent introduction, there are different opinions on whether the automobile stimulus consumption policy can be effective, and there are many wait-and-sees.
However, the latest auto industry data released in April has shown that a series of policies to stimulate auto consumption have achieved significant results.
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According to the latest production and sales data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, my country's automobile production and sales reached 2.102 million and 2.07 million in April, an increase of 46.6% and 43.5% respectively from the previous month, and an increase of 2.3% and 4.4% from the same period last year. Among them, the sales volume ended the 21-month decline.
According to the China Automobile Association, the auto market rebounded more than expected in April 2020. Among them, the production and operation of OEMs have basically recovered, and output has reached the level of the same period last year.
Previously, affected by the epidemic, the domestic auto industry experienced the coldest month in February this year. In February, domestic automobile production and sales volume were 285,000 and 310,000, respectively, which were 83.9% lower than the previous month and 79.8% and 79.1% year-on-year. In March, with the rapid resumption of production and resumption of production across the country, the decline in my country's automobile production and sales began to narrow, with production and sales falling 44.5% and 43.3% year-on-year, respectively, with 1.422 million vehicles and 1.43 million vehicles completed.
In terms of enterprises, companies such as Dongfeng Group Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Automobile Toyota announced that the company's auto sales in April had increased year-on-year.
According to the situation in the first quarter, from January to April this year, the cumulative sales of China's auto industry is expected to complete 5.67 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 32.1%.
Subsidy policy pays off
Behind the sales reversal in April, the continuous improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation has helped auto companies to quickly resume work and resume production, and sales have been fully contributed.
But a more important factor is the introduction of a series of favorable policies by the central and local governments, which directly stimulated the enthusiasm for car purchases.
It is understood that up to now, of the 8 cities and 1 province that have implemented car purchase restrictions, except for Beijing and Tianjin, other provinces and cities have been loosened to varying degrees, or increased the quota of indicators, or canceled the purchase restrictions. Among them, the loosening policy of Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Shanghai is to increase the quota indicators for each year (or half a year), ranging from 10,000 to 40,000; Hainan is a comprehensive cancellation of the new energy vehicle purchase restrictions, Guiyang is the most thorough ( Cancel the limited purchase). In addition, local governments in dozens of cities such as Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Foshan, Jiaxing, Nanchang, Urumqi, and Guangxi also took out real money and issued coupons to subsidize new car consumption.
"I want to buy a car for several years, and I haven't shaken the number. The lower limit is just to shake the number, and I can enjoy multiple subsidies for the car. Of course, I quickly bought it. Anyway, I want to buy it." A new car owner in Shenzhen told the Securities Times · E company reporter.
On the morning of May 14th, a reporter from the Securities Times·e company walked into a German brand 4S shop in Meilin, Shenzhen. Although on weekdays, there were vaguely many consumers in the shop who were negotiating and communicating, and the front desk had been busy answering consumer calls, showing Market demand is relatively strong, and the automobile consumer market is gradually picking up.
The overseas auto market is still in winter
In sharp contrast with the significant recovery of the domestic auto market, it is the "cold winter" under the influence of the continuous spread of the epidemic in overseas auto markets.
On May 13, Toyota officially announced that after considering the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on its business, it is expected that Toyota’s operating profit for the fiscal year ending in March 2021 will drop by 80%, from US$ 32.6 billion in the same period of the previous year to 22.3 billion. The US dollar is the lowest level for the company in 9 years.
Toyota’s president, Akio Toyoda, said: “Compared with the global financial crisis in 2008, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has brought us a greater impact. We expect sales to drop significantly, but despite this, we are still expected to remain profitable.
On the same day, the Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers Association stated that in April 2020, the sales of its member units were 11,761 units, a decrease of 39% from the previous month. In the first four months of 2020, the cumulative car sales of the members of the association were 64,100, a year-on-year decrease of 36%.
According to data from the National Automobile Industry Association, car sales in Europe and the United States experienced a steep decline in March. Among them, Germany's March sales fell by 38%, the best performing in the major European and American markets, followed by the United Kingdom, a decline of 44%, Spain fell by 69%, France fell by 72%, Italy fell by as much as 85%.
On the evening of May 13, the credit rating agency Moody's announced that global car sales are expected to decline by 20% in 2020, exceeding the previously expected decline (2.5%). The agency still holds a "negative" outlook for the global automotive industry.
It is worth mentioning that Moody's expects that by 2020, China, the world's largest market, will have a 10% reduction in car sales. As there are signs that "demand is beginning to return to normal", sales are expected to increase by 2.5% in 2021.
It is understood that there are 135 listed auto parts companies in China, and the overall industry is sluggish in the first quarter. Great Wall Securities predicts that the main impact of the performance of auto parts companies in the second quarter will be the prevention and control of the epidemic in Europe and America and the recovery of the logistics and transportation industry. The operation of domestic auto parts companies is expected to improve in the second quarter.
The relevant person in charge of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said that with the successive implementation of various support and promotion policies, and the active efforts of auto industry companies, the sales level of the Chinese auto industry in the second half of the year is expected to recover or exceed the same period last year, but will still be affected by overseas epidemics The impact of many uncertain factors on the progress of prevention and control.
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