The latest statistics of the new crown epidemic situation released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States on May 21 show that more than 5 million cases have been diagnosed worldwide. The epidemic has hit the world economy. As economic activity continues to be in a state of near stagnation, manufacturing in the United Kingdom, the euro zone countries and Japan is unlikely to pick up. It is still in a deep contraction, but the trend is different.
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According to data released by IHSMarkit on May 21, the initial value of the seasonally adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers' index in Japan continued to decline to 38.4, lower than the previous month's 41.9, the lowest since March 2009. To date, Japan's manufacturing index has been below the 50-point watershed for the 13th consecutive month.
On May 20, Japan’s May Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Manufacturing Prosperity Index was also only -44, falling to the lowest level since June 2009.
Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) data released this week shows that the Japanese economy has been in recession for the first time since 2015; with the new crown pneumonia epidemic hit businesses and consumers hard, Japan is expected to experience the worst post-war recession. This will continue to crack down on output orders.
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Joe Hayes, an IHS Markit analyst who conducted the survey, said: “Although the decline in service industry activity has slowed slightly, the sharp drop in commodity demand ultimately dragged down the manufacturing industry.”
Take the severely impacted automobile manufacturing industry as an example. According to the car sales data compiled by Reuters, in fiscal 2019, the total global car sales of seven major Japanese automakers fell by 7.3% to 26.5 million, the lowest in four years. .
With the gradual relaxation of anti-epidemic blockade measures, the manufacturing sector PMI of the euro zone rebounded slightly to 30.5 in May, still showing a recession.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHSMarkit, said that corporate activity in the euro zone declined further in May, but the survey data at least brought reassuring signs that the economic downturn may bottom out in April; GDP in the second quarter It is still possible to decline at an unprecedented rate, which is about 10% lower than the first quarter, but the rise of the PMI index has increased people’s expectations that the entering of the summer, as the blockade restrictions are further lifted, the economic slowdown should improve. .
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The data of the French and German PMIs of the major economies in the euro area show that France's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 40.3 in May, which was better than expected, and the recovery was facing difficulties. Germany's manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 36.8 in May, but it was less than expected, and the recovery is not clear.
Analysts expect that German demand will remain weak for a long period of time, so companies continue to lay off workers at a worrying rate to better align production capacity with current conditions. The scale of unemployment is a key risk in the long-term prospects.
The UK manufacturing PMI rebounded to 40.60 in May, better than economists expected, but it is still in serious contraction. The company reports that there is a serious lack of new business. Many companies worry that it will take a long time to recover. Some service companies are still deeply pessimistic about the near future.
IHSMarkit stated that many companies have temporarily allowed more than half of their employees to take vacations and have adopted a government emergency plan to pay 80% of their employees' wages. The number of employed persons fell again in May, but the decline was lower than in April.
Chris Williamson said that the British economy is still in an unprecedented predicament. The economic downturn, business activities and employment continued to shrink at an alarming rate in May.
In addition to concerns about the epidemic situation and economic prospects, investors are also more concerned about the UK's "Brexit" process and the Bank of England's strengthening easing expectations. Against this background, although the UK’s initial PMI data for May performed slightly better than expected, the severe economic situation remains the same, and the pound continues to be under pressure in the foreign exchange market.
In view of the economic downturn in the UK, the new Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has rephrased that during the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, the Bank of England will actively assess the lower limit of interest rates and will not rule out the possibility of implementing negative interest rates.
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