On the afternoon of April 10, 2020, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers held a monthly information "cloud release" meeting, which completed the completion of the main indicators of the automobile industry in March and the first quarter of 2020, the economic operation of the automobile industry, the Chinese automobile prosperity index in the first quarter, Monthly data of new energy vehicle power batteries, the promotion and application of electric vehicle charging infrastructure, etc. were released. At the same time, the resumption of production in the automobile industry, the promotion policies of the automobile industry, the impact of the epidemic on the domestic and foreign automobile markets, and how the automobile industry has grown steadily and promoted Consumption was reviewed and prospected. Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, presided over the press conference, and deputy secretary-generals Shi Jianhua and Chen Shihua attended and answered questions from the media.
In March 2020, with the effective control of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in China, the production and operation of the enterprise gradually resumed. On the production side, the situation of the company's resumption of production and production has improved significantly. According to the latest statistics on the resumption of production and recovery of the 23 enterprise groups controlled by the China Automobile Industry Association, the vehicle production base has been fully resumed, and the return rate of employees is 86%. 75% of the level. On the consumer side, since the epidemic has not completely ended, some market demand is still being suppressed, but corporate sales in March have been significantly better than in February. With the gradual implementation of relevant national policies, and the successive introduction of policies to promote automobile consumption by various local governments, the automobile market will accelerate recovery.
Summary of the production and sales of the automobile industry in March 2020 and the first quarter
In March, the overall performance characteristics of China's auto industry's production and sales are: the decline in the production and sales of automobiles has narrowed, the decline in the production and sales of passenger vehicles is still relatively large, the decline in commercial vehicles has narrowed more obviously, the production and sales of pickup trucks have decreased year-on-year and the decline has been greater than that of trucks, and Continued decline, the market share of Chinese brand passenger cars increased, the market concentration of key enterprise groups was higher than the same period, automobile exports increased slightly year-on-year, and the economic benefits of key enterprises fell sharply.
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In March 2020, the production and sales of automobiles exceeded 1.4 million, an increase of 4.0 times and 3.6 times compared to the previous month, and a decrease of 44.5% and 43.3% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars increased by 4.4 and 3.7 times from the previous month, down 49.9% and 48.4% year-on-year. The production and sales of commercial vehicles increased 3.2 times and 3.5 times from the previous month, down 20.3% and 22.6% year-on-year.
From January to March, automobile production and sales were 3.474 million and 3.672 million, down 45.2% and 42.4% year-on-year. The decline rate is roughly the same as that in January-February, in which the decline rate of commercial vehicles is generally lower than that of passenger vehicles.
In March, the production and sales performance of new energy vehicles was significantly better than that of the previous month, with a rapid growth in the month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline was narrower than in February. In March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were completed at 50,000 and 53,000, respectively, up 3.8 times and 3.0 times from the previous month, down 56.9% and 53.3% year-on-year. Among the main varieties of new energy vehicles, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles both showed a substantial increase month-on-month, and they still showed a rapid decline year-on-year.
From January to March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were completed at 105,000 and 114,000 respectively, down 60.2% and 56.4% year-on-year.
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The operation of the automobile industry in the first quarter increased the downward pressure on the industry
In the first quarter of 2020, the auto industry prosperity index ACI was 6, down 21 points from the fourth quarter of 2019. In the first quarter of 2020, the automobile industry's consistent composite index was 79.22 (2010 = 100), a decrease of 6.69 points from the fourth quarter of 2019. The leading composite index is 77.31 (2010 = 100), which is 1.70 points lower than the fourth quarter of 2019.
The above indicates that the operation of the auto industry in this quarter changed the trend of the previous quarter and tended to go down. The downward pressure on the Chinese auto market in the future will be greater.
Impact of the epidemic on the automotive industry and future expectations
Due to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the domestic auto market has also been severely affected. With the recovery of production and production, the current main contradictions reflect that the domestic auto consumer market needs to be urgently restored and boosted. The epidemic has caused a huge impact on domestic transportation, tourism, catering, retail, manufacturing and other industries. According to relevant data, there have been forced closures of SMEs in many industries, which has seriously affected the employees ’ Income, resulting in impaired automobile consumption capacity.
With the outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, the export of our labor-intensive products abroad has dropped significantly. In the first two months, denominated in US dollars, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products were US $ 172.056 billion, down 16.2%. In the same period, in terms of traditional labor-intensive products, apparel exports, textile exports, plastic products exports, and furniture exports all declined by about 20%. With the intensification of overseas epidemics, export-oriented export companies faced another three to six months of shutdown The decline in employee income will also affect automobile consumption.
In addition, the outbreak of the epidemic overseas has also affected the overseas automobile consumer market, which has hindered the export of Chinese brands of automobiles and parts. From a global perspective, many foreign forecasting agencies have significantly reduced their sales in the global auto market in 2020. However, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association has proposed that some preparations should be made to stimulate the recovery of the automotive industry.
The China Automobile Association expects that the Chinese auto market will recover significantly in the second quarter, but it is difficult to recover to the level of the same period last year. Considering only the influence of domestic factors, with the successive introduction of various support and promotion policies, combined with the active efforts of auto industry companies, the sales level of the auto industry in the second half of the year is expected to recover or exceed the same period last year, but will still be affected by overseas epidemics Influence of uncertain factors on prevention and control progress.
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