Analysis of economic operation of machine tool industry in the first quarter of 2020

The sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic has brought unprecedented impact on my country's economic and social development, and has also had a serious impact on the operation of the machine tool industry. National economic activities and industrial production have basically been suspended during the most intense period of epidemic prevention and control since late January. Therefore, the main characteristics of the operation of the machine tool industry in the first quarter of 2020 are that the economic operation is declining, the loss is expanding, and the main economic indicators are falling. However, the year-on-year decline in January-March was significantly narrower than that in January-February, indicating that the industry's operation is gradually recovering.

After March, with the effective control of the domestic epidemic situation, the orderly advancement of resumption of production and the implementation of various policy measures such as the “six stability” and “six guarantees” of the country, the economy is recovering rapidly, and the machine tool industry is also recovering synchronously. However, changes in the external environment brought about by the epidemic will have a profound impact on the future industry pattern.

As of March 2020, there were a total of 5562 "above-scale enterprises" (hereinafter referred to as "planned enterprises") with an annual operating income of more than 20 million yuan in China's machine tool industry. Compared with the end of last year, the number of enterprises decreased by 148, accounting for the total 2.6%. The distribution of these 5562 companies in eight sub-industries is: 808 metal cutting machine tools (14.5%), 8 fewer than the end of last year; 524 metal forming machine tools (9.4%), 26 fewer than the end of last year; 728 measuring tools and measuring instruments (13.1%), an increase of 13 from the end of last year; 1922 abrasive tools (34.6%), a decrease of 25 from the end of last year; 347 machine tool functional parts and accessories (6.2%), 35 fewer than the end of last year; 472 casting machinery (8.5%), 49 fewer than the end of last year; 127 wood and bamboo processing machinery (2.3%), 21 fewer than the end of last year; 634 other metal processing machinery ( Accounted for 11.4%), an increase of 3 from the end of last year.

1. Completion of major economic indicators

During the epidemic prevention and control process, about 30 machine tool companies accepted the tasks of the local government, and developed masks, thermometers, and other urgently needed equipment for epidemic prevention, and some of them have relatively large production volumes. The income from this part of the product is also included in the operating income from January to March.

From January to March 2020, the operating income of the machine tool industry is completed and the year-on-year changes are described in detail.

The accumulative total operating income of the key contact enterprises of the association from January to March 2020 decreased by 29.9% year-on-year, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the year-on-year decrease of January-February (-25.2%). Among them, the cumulative operating income of the metal cutting machine tool industry decreased by 32.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the year-on-year decrease (-34.2%) of the January-February; the cumulative operating income of the metal forming machine tool industry decreased by 36.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 1% -The year-on-year decrease in February (-31.9%) expanded by 5 percentage points; the accumulated operating income of the tooling industry decreased by 29.8% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase of 14.3% from January to February; the accumulated operating income of the abrasives industry decreased by 23.5%, The decrease was 0.4 percentage points higher than that in January-February (-23.1%).

Compared with the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the key contact enterprises of the association have a greater year-on-year decrease, and the year-on-year decrease has expanded from January to February. The tooling industry changed from a year-on-year decline in January-February to a year-on-year decrease, which deserves attention.

2. Total profit

According to the statistics of enterprises listed on the National Bureau of Statistics, the total profit of the machine tool industry in January-March 2020 decreased by 31.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 11.4 percentage points from the year-on-year decrease of January-February (-42.7%). Among them, the metal cutting machine tool industry accumulated a loss of 70 million yuan from January to March, and a profit of 920 million yuan over the same period. The accumulated profit of the metal forming machine tool industry from January to March decreased by 71.9% year-on-year, which was 21.0 percentage points narrower than the year-on-year decrease from January to February (-92.9%). The total realized profit of the tooling and measuring instrument industry from January to March decreased by 16.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 28.0 percentage points from the year-on-year decrease of January-February (-44.2%). The accumulated profits of the abrasives industry in January-March increased by 1.5% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decrease from January to February was 1.8% year-on-year. From January to March 2020, the total profit of the machine tool industry and the year-on-year growth will be described in detail.

From January to March 2020, the accumulative total profits of key contact enterprises decreased by 96.6% year-on-year. Among them, the metal cutting machine tool industry suffered a loss of 337 million yuan, a loss of 187 million yuan over the same period of the previous year. The accumulated profit of the metal forming machine tool industry decreased by 81.3% year-on-year, the accumulated profit of the tooling industry increased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the accumulated profit of the abrasive tool industry decreased by 25.6% year-on-year.

The year-on-year trend of the total profit of the association's key contact enterprises and the National Bureau of Statistics was about the same.

According to the statistics of enterprises listed on the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China, the loss-making enterprises in the machine tool industry accounted for 34.8% from January to March 2020, which was 3.5 percentage points narrower than the year-on-year decrease (38.3%) from January to February. Among them, the metal-cutting machine tool industry had the largest loss, at 49.9%, which was 8 percentage points lower than the year-on-year decline (57.9%); the metal forming machine tool industry was 41.8%, which was lower than the year-on-year decrease (45.6%). 3.8 percentage points narrower. The tooling and measuring instrument industry accounted for 30.9%, which was 7 percentage points narrower than the year-on-year decrease (37.9%) from January to February. The abrasives industry was 28.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the year-on-year decrease (27.8%) in January-February.

From January to March 2020, the loss-making enterprises accounted for 41.4% of the key contacts, which was narrowed by 21.5 percentage points from the year-on-year decline in January-February. Among them, the metal cutting machine tool industry was 50.0%, which was narrower than the year-on-year decline of January-February by 21.2 percentage points; the metal forming machine tool industry was 30.8%, which was narrower than the January-February year-on-year decline of 27.6 percentage points; It was 38.2%, which was 25.4 percentage points lower than the year-on-year decline in January-February; the abrasives industry was 22.7%, which was 4.6 percentage points narrower than the year-on-year decline (27.3%) in January-February.

Both the National Bureau of Statistics data and the association's key contacted enterprise data show that the business conditions of industry enterprises have improved in March, and the losses have narrowed.

According to the statistics of enterprises listed on the National Bureau of Statistics, the machine tool industry accumulated from January to March, the output of metal cutting machine tools decreased by 29.6% year-on-year, of which the output of CNC metal cutting machine tools decreased by 36.0% year-on-year. The output of metal forming machine tools decreased by 25.8% year-on-year, of which the output of CNC metal forming machine tools decreased by 32.3% year-on-year. The year-on-year declines of the above indicators from January to March were significantly narrower than those from January to February. It is the output and year-on-year change of metal processing machine tools in the machine tool industry of the National Bureau of Statistics.

The association's key contact enterprises accumulated from January to March 2020, the output of metal cutting machine tools fell by 29.8% year-on-year; the output of metal forming machine tools fell by 37.4% year-on-year. The data is basically consistent with the National Bureau of Statistics.

According to the statistics of the metal processing machine tool orders of the association, the association's key contact enterprises' new orders for metal processing machine tools fell by 4.0% year-on-year in January-March 2020, a decrease of 13.7 percentage points from the year-on-year decline of January-February, and the orders in hand The decline was 8.5%, which was 7.4 percentage points narrower than the year-on-year decline in January-February. Among them, the new orders for metal cutting machine tools decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, which was narrowed by 32 percentage points compared with the same period of January-February. Orders in hand increased by 4.4% year-on-year, from January to February, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%; new orders for metal forming machine tools fell by 6.5% year-on-year, and from January to February, an increase of 14.4% year-on-year. Orders in hand fell by 30.2% year-on-year, narrowing by 1.2 percentage points from the year-on-year decline in January-February. This shows that, except for the new orders for metal forming machine tools, they have improved compared with the same period from January to February.

According to the statistics of enterprises listed on the National Bureau of Statistics, the inventory of finished products at the end of March 2020 in the machine tool industry increased by 6.2% year-on-year. Among them, the inventory of finished products in the metal cutting machine tool industry increased by 0.9% year-on-year, the inventory of finished products in the metal forming machine tool industry increased by 6.9% year-on-year, the inventory of finished products in the tooling and measuring instrument industry increased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the inventory of finished products in the abrasive tool industry increased by 22.6 year-on-year. %.

At the end of March 2020, the key contacts of the association's finished products increased by 9.5% year-on-year. Among them, metal cutting machine tools increased by 11.0% year-on-year, and metal forming machine tools increased by 7.6% year-on-year. Inventory of finished products of tools and tools decreased by 2.3% year-on-year. The inventory of finished products in the abrasives industry increased by 19.1% year-on-year.

The National Bureau of Statistics and the Association's key contact enterprises have the same year-on-year change in finished product inventory. In contrast, the inventory of finished products of the association's key contact enterprises increased more than the same period last year. The increase in inventories is closely related to the occurrence of epidemics and blocked sales.

Affected by the new crown epidemic, the import and export of machine tools and tools in the first quarter of 2020 both dropped sharply year-on-year. From January to March 2020, the total import and export of machine tool products was US$5.66 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.0%. Among them, imports were 2.67 billion US dollars, down 21.3% year-on-year; exports were 2.93 billion US dollars, down 10.6% year-on-year. Although both imports and exports declined, exports fell by less than half of imports year-on-year. Compared with January-February 2020, the decline in imports and exports narrowed by 12.1 and 8.7 percentage points, respectively. See from January to March 2020 for the import and export of machine tool products.

From January to March 2020, machine tool imports and exports maintained a surplus since June 2019, with a trade surplus of US$260 million. From January to March 2020, the trade surplus includes metal forming machine tools (30 million), woodworking machine tools (280 million US dollars), cutting tools (230 million US dollars), and abrasives (380 million US dollars) casting machines (10 million US dollars ) Five commodity areas. See Table 1 for the import and export situation of industries and main product categories.

Table 1 Import and export of machine tool industry and main product categories from January to March 2020

*It should be noted that the re-import of CNC equipment in January-March 2020 has a large share. After excluding this factor, the import value is -6.8% year-on-year, and this factor also affects the export value and its year-on-year.

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From January to March 2020, the import of metal processing machine tools showed a large downward trend, but the decline was significantly narrower than that from January to February. The import value of metal processing machine tools was 1.30 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 32.3%, which was 5.6 percentage points lower than the year-on-year decrease (-37.9%) from January to February. Among them, the import value of metal cutting machine tools was 1.07 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 27.4%, compared with 1 -The year-on-year decline in February (-33.8) narrowed by 6.4 percentage points; the import value of metal forming machine tools was US$230 million, a year-on-year decrease of 48.5%, which was 3.5 percentage points narrower than the year-on-year decline in January-February (-52.0).

From January to March 2020, the export of metal processing machine tools also showed a significant downward trend, but the decline was significantly narrower than that from January to February. The export value of metal processing machine tools was US$800 million, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%, which was narrowed by 5.3 percentage points from the year-on-year decrease (-28.8%). Among them, the export value of metal cutting machine tools was US$540 million, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%, compared with 1 -The year-on-year decrease in February (-25.7%) narrowed by 5.2 percentage points; the export value of metal forming machine tools was US$260 million, a year-on-year decrease of 29.0%, and a decrease of 5.1 percentage points from the year-on-year decline in January-February (-34.1%).

The year-on-year decline in January-March was significantly narrower than that in January-February, reflecting the recovery of foreign trade and industrial production after the new crown epidemic was controlled.

(1) The top three countries and regions of metal processing machine tool import sources

From January to March 2020, among the countries and regions from which metal processing machine tools were imported, Japan, Germany, and Taiwan still rank among the top three in the same order as in the whole year of 2019, and the total amount of the three accounts for more than 70%. The amount of imports from these three countries and regions has decreased significantly year-on-year, of which Germany has the largest decrease, reaching 42.5%, and Taiwan, China has also fallen by as much as 34.5%. (See Table 2 for details)

Table 2 The top three countries and regions for metal processing machine tool imports from January to March 2020

(2) Metal processing machine tools export to the top three countries and regions

From January to March 2020, metal processing machine tool exports go to the country. As in the whole of 2019, Vietnam, India and the United States still occupy the top three in order. The amount of export and the proportion of these three countries are not large, and the total proportion of the three is 25.4%. Among them, exports to India fell the most, reaching 38.0%. (See Table 3 for details)

Table 3 Metal processing machine tool exports to the top three countries and regions from January to March 2020

(3) The top five metal processing machine tools in terms of import value

From January to March 2020, the total amount of the top five imported varieties accounted for more than 70%, of which the processing center accounted for the largest (27.0%). All varieties have declined year-on-year, of which the processing center and lathes have fallen by more than 30%. (See Table 4 for details)

Table 4 The top five metal processing machine tool varieties in the import value from January to March 2020

(4) The top five metal processing machine tools in terms of export value

From January to March 2020, the total amount of the top five varieties accounted for more than 60%, of which special processing machine tools accounted for the largest proportion (29.7%). All varieties have decreased year-on-year, of which lathes and other forming machine tools have fallen by more than 30%. (See Table 5 for details)

Table 5 The top five metal processing machine tool varieties with export value from January to March 2020

3. Research and judgment of recent industry situation

(1) Favorable factors

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1. my country has the advantages of large-scale market and internal potential, and the fundamentals of the long-term economic improvement have not changed

my country has a population of 1.4 billion, a huge market, a complete manufacturing system, and economic resilience